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By Terence C. Mills (auth.)

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Additional resources for A Very British Affair: Six Britons and the Development of Time Series Analysis During the 20th Century

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From our original random sample of size 10, we calculate a 2a + b 3a + 2b + c .. d. 2], the correlations are much higher, and again they are not symmetrical with respect to the two ends of the sample. But the magnitude of the correlations is now very high. 991. 990]. The tendency of the sample to ‘tilt’ as a whole becomes now very clearly marked, so clear that it becomes quite evident on forming even a few experimental samples in this way. d. 4 and, as should be expected, these show an appropriate degree of conformity, with the experimental results being very close to their expectations.

This gives k rx ( j) = j=1 1 1 k(k + 1)ˆrx (1) − k(k − 1) 2 2 from which rˆx (1) can be calculated. 8. Formally, if the random series is denoted u1 , u2 , . . , uT , then xt = u1 + u2 + · · · + ut is a series with random differences (in the simulations T is set at 100). 10. 697 for A1 , B1 and C1 , respectively. , page 60). 8 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Three random series of k and will cease to be valid for large values. , page 60; italics in original) Yule next considered the case when the differences are correlated such that 1 rx (k) is a linear function of k.

5 years, this was consistent with the long cycle of 54 years found by Beveridge. He concluded that analyses such as this ‘may suffice to suggest the interesting way in which the serial correlations can be used to bring out, at least by a rough first analysis, the predominant characteristics of a given series. , page 47). , Tables XV and XVI). 19. , page 49). 15 Yule concluded his address with the following summary which, since it encapsulates what are arguably the most important concepts so far developed for the foundations of time series analysis, is again quoted in detail.

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